I know I havent blogged in a while... and I promise to explain it all soon... but in the meantime I will leave you with my Oscar predictions for this year:
Mickey Rourke - THE WRESTLER This is a great list of actors and the favorite is Penn for is amazing immersion into Gay Politico Harvey Milk. Both Jenkins and Langella gave performances of a lifetime this year, and Brad Pitt reminded us all why we loved him so much. However, the academy voters are suckers for a story and this year they have been given a rare opportunity to travel back in time twenty years and save their prodigal son. Which is why the feel good vote this year will go to Mickey Rourke.
Michael Shannon - REVOLUTIONARY ROADHoffman and Brolin, while both brilliant actors, are the usual suspects filling out the line up this year while the honor of being nominated will go to Shannon. I love that the Academy voters nominated Downey, and in my heart of hearts I wish he could win. His recent resurrection, however, pales in comparison to the very real loss of death. And since it is one of the first awards to go in the line-up, we will be getting the sad victory out of the way at the get go. Thanks for everything, Heath Ledger.
Kate Winslet - THE READEROh how I wish Ann Hathaway would walk with the statue this year. Who doesn't love her? While Jolie was mesmerizing in The Changeling it is a performance that everyone stopped talking about months ago. Melissa Leo has the honor of being nominated this year, and for her 15th nomination in 30 years Meryl Streep is showing us what we can expect in the future from this years winner Kate Winslet, who after being nominated 6 times in 13 years should finally get her first damned Oscar.
Marisa Tomei - THE WRESTLEROne best supporting actress Oscar winner; Tomei. One two time best supporting actress nominee; Adams. One best actress nominee; Cruz. And two " that one girl from that one thing...", Henson and Davis. This race is always a toss up, hence Oscar winner Tomei for "My Cousin Vinny"?!!? But this year I think the vote will go to Penelope Cruz. Every time she speaks her own language in a movie, she is phenomenal. I think she will win because of "Volver".
WALL-EI think Entertainment Weekly put this race best when they said... "um... yeah. WALL-E". Personally I think it should have been nominated for best picture... but thats just me.
REVOLUTIONARY ROADI know... what the hell is this category even about... right? There are several categories that make people just go... what is that?? I will try to explain what they are for. Well, here it is boiled down to it's bare bones: The Art Director controls every visual aspect of a film, from set, to props to costumes. Typically this award tends to go for period pieces and musicals. With this line up I would say The Duchess and The Changeling were tied for second place, but the clear winner will be Benjamin Button if for no other reason than they had to differentiate the passing of a century.
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIREAnother category that stumps most people outside of the Hollywood limelight is Cinematography... what is it exactly? The Cinematographer is responsible for all lighting, lens choices, composition, exposure, filtration, film selection and basically the overall visual effects. The best way to think about this category is; which film made the most interesting photograph. So, with that in mind, I would say that Benjamin Button and The Dark Knight will duke it out.
REVOLUTIONARY ROADThis category is as obvious as it sounds... best costumes. Typically the academy voters have picked period pieces and fantasy movies over modern movies like Milk and Revolutionary Road. I would say the front runners are Benjamin Button and The Duchess with the later taking home what may be it's only award of the night.
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIREThis is a really tough race to call. David Fincher who made Benjamin Button, Zodiac, Fight Club, The Game, Se7en and has never been nominated. Ron Howard who has already won in this category for A Beautiful Mind. Gus Van Sant who makes some really stunning quiet independent movies that are always on the awards lists (Elephant, My Own Private Idaho, To Die For, Drugstore Cowboy), and was nominated in this category once before with Good Will Hunting (I truly think Gus deserves to win the most). Stephen Daldry, whose last two movies (The Hours, Billy Elliott) also got him nominated. Meaning of the four movies he has made, three have gotten him nominated. And finally the fan favorite, Danny Boyle who has brought us Trainspotting, A Life Less Ordinary, 28 Days Later and Sunshine is up for his first Oscar.
TROUBLE THE WATEREvery now and then I like a good documentary. Of these five, three speak to me, and mind you, I have seen none of them. Werner Herzog is a respected name and that may win some votes, but the subject matter doesn't pull you in as much as Trouble The Water. A woman holding on for her life managed to keep her camera rolling through Katrina and the life after. Man On Wire is the most buzzed about, but mostly due to one silent moment near the end when a man walks a line across our still healing past, suspended above New York between what were once two great towers.
THE WITNESS - FROM THE BALCONY OF ROOM 306The way this award usually works is either it is the most heartbreaking subject matter imaginable and everyone votes for it when they read the synopsis, or, they vote for the one that every one is talking about (which happens a lot in the smaller categories). In this race, two are feel good, helping people shorts, one is a mans recollection of the MLK assassination, which may help its chances in this historic year. The one the will win however is the most heartbreaking, The Conscience of Nhem En is about a sixteen-year-old soldier who was instructed to photograph the tens of thousands of citizens who passed through a processing center on the way to their execution.
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIREThis one again, just as it sounds. The movie with the most layers and most seamless transitions wins... In this race it comes down to The Dark Knight vs. Benjamin Button again. But Slumdog Millionaire could split their votes.
Waltz With BashirThis race has two movies that stand alone. The Class is a year in the life of a French middle school classroom that has some inventive takes on teaching, and Waltz With Bashir, an animated diary of a soldiers search for his forgotten past through war torn 80's Israel.
HELLBOY II: THE GOLDEN ARMYI would give this award to The Dark Knight, if for no other reason than with just makeup alone they created a new horrifying iconic look for an old Hollywood standard.
WALL-EThis category not only covers all the music written for the movie, but also the selection of songs written by other artists. The only type of music that is excluded from this category is the original song. Though Slumdog is the favorite in many categories, here is will be between Danny Elfman (he has been nominated four times with no wins) for Milk, And Thomas Newman (he has been nominated ten times with no wins) for WALL-E.
"O Saya" - SLUMDOG MILLIONAIREAgain, this vote will go the opposite way of Best Score. If Slumdog takes Score, WALL-E will take Song. If WALL-E wins Score (which is what I think will happen, I mean no talking till halfway through the movie!) Than Jai Ho will win Best Song.
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIREAs up in the air as this race is I think Slumdog Millionaire is going to take it. Milk and Benjamin Button are close. I think if Milk won it wouldn't be an upset. But if Benjamin Button wins over Slumdog it will be akin to Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan. An UPSET.
THIS WAY UPThis one I always take a shot in the dark on. It's between Lavatory - Lovestory and Presto. And judging by the history of love from the academy toward films with this kind of animation (a'la Wallace & Grommit) I am calling it for Presto.
SPIELZEUGLAND (TOYLAND)Again, this is one of those... wtf boring catergories, because, well really... where would the public get to see all of these shorts? I'm going to say New Boy takes the prize based soley on the fact that the academy loves to watch a cute kid go through struggle. Upset could go to ToyLand, cuz of that cute moptop german boy asking where the jew's toyland "camp" is... oy.
WANTEDIf you were wondering, Sound Editing is responsible for creating and recording every sound you hear in the movie and every word of dialogue, with the exception of the score and songs. The sound of the leaves to the marching of an army, they create and add all sound. Because somewhere deep down I feel like the academy wants to honor every movie, I am going to say that Iron Man will win. Although it could just as easily go to any of the other nominees... except Wanted... who bought that nomination???
WANTEDRight along the same vein of Sound Editing is this completely redundant award for Sound Mixing which is... anyone... anyone... hello? It's an award to honor the guy that took all the recorded sounds, dialoge, voice over, ambiant music and sound effects and lays them down so that they overlap correctly so the movies sound is in sync with the visuals. Like the Editing Catergory one of these goes to the movie that wins everything, and the other one goes to the one that gets nothing. Which means this one is called for Slumdog Millionaire. And could be potentially be defeated by any of its compition... except Wanted... that movie sucked ass.
IRON MANVisual Effects is for everything that wasnt in the shot when they shot it. Light, shadows, props, greenscreen, special effects. Basicaly you can think of this as the award for the best special effects. This is a toss up between Iron Man and The Dark Knight, but I'm going to call it for Batman... I'm sure the academy members feel a bit of shame over the omission in the best picture catergory.
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIREThe way the best writing awards work is one goes to the Best Picture front runner and one goes to the underdog. In this catergory I think Slumdog Millionaire will win over Benjamin Button because it is also going to win best picture.
WALL-ESadly I think this will be the only award for Milk. Dustin Lance Black found a way to bring this fifteen year passion project to the screen with his sharp witty script. The only upset I can think of is that because it was snubbed in every other catergory WALL-E could be given this years consolation prize.
Alright... thats it for me... the Oscars happen this Sunday and we shall all see who wins then... If I get it right... I better get a damn prize!!!
1 comment:
I'll agree on a few. Only a few.
The differences:
-- I want Sean Penn to win best actor.
-- Slumdog will get best cinematography. And Directing. And Film Editing. And Score.
-- Man on Wire!!! It was great.
-- The Witness for doc short.
-- The Class for Foreign feature
-- I'm giving makeup to Benjamin Button and visual effects.
-- I keep hearing Toyland will win short film live action
-- Sound editing to Iron Man? Hells no... it's Dark Knight. i'll have to play it on bluray with my 7.1 audio sometime. They'll get sound mixing too!
I'm going to watch at my place with a few folks over on Sunday if you don't have plans. xxxooo
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