My Oscar Prediction 2008

As many of you know I am a bit obsessive about movies. I know, as many have put it, way WAY WAY too much about movies. I can name a movie just by the suggestion of a plot or an actor whose face was familiar from that other movie... So every year as the Oscars approach I like to make my predictions. I have been right on some years (Thank you Unforgiven) and way off base other years (damn you Russell Crow and Reese Witherspoon!!). And yet like it's some addiction, (cinephiles anonymous?) I cant seem to help myself from saying who should win and why, so, I'll just go ahead and call it for this year: And the winner is...

Best Picture: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will be Blood.

Winner: There Will be Blood
Why: The unique and interesting view the filmmakers took to make this movie helps it stand alone in this category. It is not just a movie that you go and watch. It is an experience. The way sound and music are used to tell the story give us new angles and view points to make films. It is this innovation that will be awarded. Plus it doesn't hurt that Paul Thomas Anderson has given us very unique and groundbreaking films twice before with Boogie Nights and Magnolia.
Dark Horse: Juno, In this country at this time there is already so much violence, mistrust and anger, the voting academy might just decide to go with Juno because of it's ability to bring brevity and humor to a troubling social issue.

Best Actor: George Clooney, Daniel Day-Lewis, Johnny Depp, Tommy Lee Jones, Viggo Mortensen

Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
Why: Day-Lewis IS the greatest living actor. He already has one best actor statue for My Left Foot, and he has been nominated 4 times for this award. He is a method actor which means when he takes a role, he becomes that person. For anyone who has seen any of his movies he is virtually unrecognizable from one role to the next. He is a true artist with his craft. As for his competition, Clooney wont win because the movie just doesn't warrant it for him. He did a great job with the movie, but mostly he just stood still while most of the impressive acting was happening around him. Depp wont win because it was just so grim, and for all those academy voters who saw the Broadway show before the movie, the film fell flat with a dull thud. Tommy Lee and Viggo both wont win because of... wait... what was that movie?
Dark Horse: Tommy Lee Jones, First time in the leading role category, he could win it as a nod to a distinguished career. Johnny could walk with it because he deserves it (five times over, at that). But he wont win because he is young and we are still expecting more.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard, Laura Linney, Ellen Page

Winner:Laura Linney
Why: Laura Linney is a versatile actress who has turned in some amazing turns as women just hanging on. She has been nominated for an Oscar three times in seven years, and has a solid resume of well reviewed and highly lauded movies. She is an Academy Darling that the academy has never rewarded. This may be her year just because of that reason. Cate Blanchett was nominated because she deserved the Oscar for Elizabeth 1 and was kind of robbed in the opinions of some voters by Gwyneth Paltrow. This nomination is their way of saying sorry for that slight, but she is not going to win, not with a supporting statue at home and a possible second supporting statue that night. Ellen Page gave a great performance as Juno, but lets be real, it's her second run out the gate (if you don't count X-men 3), and she is bound to give us something more amazing. Julie Christie, could win the elderly statesmen vote, and she has been up for this award four times, winning once, but I just don't think she will get it this time either. The Academy figures give her a few more years (she is only 67 after all) and they will give her a lifetime achievement award.
Dark Horse: Marion Cotillard, This is actually who I think should win. I mean I love Laura Linney and everything, but Marion Cotillard gave the most amazing performance of the year as Edith Piaf. The academy does love to reward the ability to perfectly mimic a public figure (Jamie Foxx as Ray, Cate Blanchett as Catherine Hepburn, etc...), the only downfall is that this movie came out in theatres to a limited release in June and was on shelves by Thanksgiving, and most people have never heard of it.

Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, Javier Bardem, Phillip Seymore Hoffman, Hal Holbrook, Tom Wilkinson.

Winner: Hal Holbrook
Why: Holbrook has been a constantly working actor for over 54 years, and this is his first trip to the Kodak Theater. That alone could win him the Oscar. In his brief time on screen in Into the Wild he created a fully formed old man with a lifetime of woe that broke our hearts and made us want to call our fathers and grandfathers, not a small feat for just a few minutes on screen. To put it in perspective, this man has been a working actor in Hollywood longer than 3 of his co-nominees have been alive, and he made his tv debut when Tom Wilkinson was 6. I think he will win it so the academy doesn't have to give him a lifetime achievement award in a couple years. Casey Affleck, first time out the gate on his own in a movie that no one saw. Phillip Seymore Hoffman just won an Oscar, and this performance was no where near as good as that one. Tom Wilkinson has been nominated twice before and not won, and though he is an Oscar caliber actor and should be rewarded with a statue, it wont be for this movie.
Dark Horse: Javier Bardem, Although Bardem is the favorite to win this race, I think that the killer balloon has popped. Bardem has been nominated before for Before Night Falls, his performance in that movie was amazing and electric, and he should have won. I don't think he will win because like William Hurt in A History of Violence, they are after all, just another killer.

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, Ruby Dee, Saoirse Ronan, Amy Ryan, Tilda Swinton

Winner: Tilda Swinton
Why: Watching the physical reactions on Swintons face in this movie tells a story onto itself. Looking at this list of candidates, Swinton gave the most impactful performance of the group. The confrontation and subsequent break down at the end of Michael Clayton is breathtaking and the stuff of academy voters dreams. She provided in that one scene more emotion than all her competitors combined. Blanchett won this award two years ago and her votes this year are going to be split between two races essentially counting her out of both. Ruby Dee, was on and off the screen within minutes, had little to do with the story, and was not missed through the rest of the film, strong performance, but not enough. Saoirse Ronan can be discounted by age alone, but also because she wasn't very nice in the movie and she was gone for half of it.
Dark Horse:Amy Ryan could walk with it. She has made a successful career playing one name characters (neighbor with toddler in War of the Worlds), and honing her craft both in small supporting roles and on the stage. This could be considered by many as her breakout roll. That could help and hurt her. For those that have heard of her, she has their votes shored up. For those that haven't seen her face somewhere before... she is just another filler name.

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, Ethan and Joel Cohen, Tony Gilroy, Jason Reitman, Julian Schmabel

Winner: Joel & Ethan Coen
Why: The Coen Brothers have been nominated for 8 academy awards between the two of them, having only won best original screenplay for Fargo. People are not lying when they say that the brothers are back in form. It also doesn't hurt that there are two of them. Don't put it past academy voters to see that opportunity. Why give a statue to one person when you can reward two? The Coens are also the most accomplished directors in the pool. Tony Gilroy made his Directing debut with Michael Clayton and voters will just assume he is off to a good start. Jason Reitman, son of famed director Ivan Reitman has to prove he is more than just his fathers son, and Paul Thomas Anderson is young and going to giving us much more.
Dark Horse:Julian Schnabel has a huge following of very vocal supporters. And well he should have. It was Schnabel's Before Night Falls that brought Bardem to American screens for the first time. He also made one of the most beautiful and praised movies about an artist in the last two decades with Basquiat. It has been said that while Schnabel was a mediocre artist, when he steps behind the camera he creates something truly magnificent.

Best Original Screenplay: Ratatouille, Juno, Michael Clayton, The Savages, Lars and the Real Girl

Winner: Juno
Why: Juno will win for the same reason that many of this categories former recipients won for, it wont win anything else. When there is a clear winner in the best picture race and it is an original screenplay than it will usually win this category also (ie. Shakespeare In Love, American Beauty, Crash), but if the Best Picture winner is an adaptation then this race goes to the little movie that could, but didn't (Little Miss Sunshine, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Sideways, Lost In Translation).
Dark Horse: Ratatouille. If by some freak voter malfunction Juno doesn't win, than my money is on Ratatouille. It was a cartoon sure, but it was wonderfully written and performed, and I think that it is a little movie that could, coming off the string of cartoon misses it worked for kids, adults and every age group in between.

Best Adapted Screenplay: There Will be Blood, No Country for Old Men, Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Away From Her

Winner: No Country for Old Men
Why: It will win because it has the most momentum and it is the front runner. This way the Coen brothers can walk away with four Oscars and that will put them out of the running for a few years.
Dark Horse:Away From Her. The Academy loves to reward actors for their writing (Emma Thompson, Billy Bob Thornton, Ben Affleck & Matt Damon, Sofia Coppola). And to say Sarah Polly hit it out of the ballpark on her first try is an understatement. She did an amazing job with the movie and gently guided Julie Christie to her fourth nomination in 42 years, I'm just not sure it will be enough.

Best Original Song: "Falling Slowly" from Once; "Raise It Up" from August Rush; "Happy Working Song", "So Close", & "That's How You Know" from Enchanted

Winner: "Falling Slowly" from Once
Why: This entire movie was a beautiful musical journey spinning the tale of how a beautiful love song gets written. There is amazing chemistry between the singers who fell in love making the movie, and the song soars with emotion.
Dark Horse: Nominating multiple songs from one movie is tricky. In the late 80's and early 90's when Disney was in it's musical cartoon heyday, they pushed for multiple nods for The Little Mermaid, The Lion King, Beauty & The Beast and Aladdin and won each time. But when Dreamworks tried the same tactic for Dreamgirls last year they fell flat on their faces. I think it will happen again, but if I am wrong, I would have to say "Happy Working Song" wins.

Best Foreign Language Film:Beaufort, The Counterfeiters, Katyn, Mongol, 12

Winner:Mongol
Dark Horse:Beaufort

Best Documentary Feature: No End in Sight, Operation Homecoming, Sicko, Taxi to the Dark Side, War/Dance

Winner:Taxi to the Dark Side
Dark Horse: Sicko

Best Documentary Short: Freeheld, La Corona, Salim Baba, Sari's Mother

Winner:Salim Baba
Dark Horse: Sari's Mother

Bets Animated Feature: Persepolis, Ratatouille, Surf's Up

Winner: Persepolis
Dark Horse: Ratatouille

Best Animated Short: I Met the Walrus, Madame Tuti-Putli, Even Pigeons go to Heaven, My Love, Peter & The Wolf

Winner: Even Pigeons go to Heaven
Dark Horse: Peter & The Wolf

Best Cinematography: Atonement, Diving Bell & The Butterfly, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Winner: Atonement
Dark Horse: No Country for Old Men

Best Visual Effects: The Golden Compass, Pirates of the Caribbean III, Transformers

Winner: Transformers
Dark Horse: Pirates of the Caribbean III

Best Live Action Short: At Night, The Substitute, The Mozart of Pickpockets, Tanghi Argentini, The Tonto Woman

Winner: At Night
Dark Horse: The Tonto Woman

Best Art Direction: American Gangster, Atonement, The Golden Compass, Sweeney Todd, There Will Be Blood

Winner: There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: American Gangster

Best Costume Design: Across the Universe, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Atonement, La Vie en Rose, Sweeney Todd

Winner: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Dark Horse: Atonement

Best Film Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum, Diving Bell & The Butterfly, Into the Wild, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood

Winner: The Bourne Ultimatum
Dark Horse: Into the Wild

Best Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum, No Country for Old Men, Ratatouille, 3:10 to Yuma, Transformers

Winner: No Country for Old Men
Dark Horse: Ratatouille

Best Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum, No Country for Old Men, Ratatouille, There Will Be Blood, Transformers

Winner: There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: Ratatouille

Best Original Score: Atonement, The Kite Runner, Michael Clayton, Ratatouille, 3:10 to Yuma

Winner: Atonement
Dark Horse: The Kite Runner

Best Makeup: La Vie en Rose, Norbit, Pirates of the Caribbean III

Winner: La Vie en Rose
Dark Horse: Norbit